It’s no secret that some of America’s largest cities are losing residents. And while New York’s losses slowed in 2022, the nation’s largest metropolitan area has seen substantial declines since the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the world’s work and leisure habits.
So where is everyone headed? To the American South, it turns out.
According to Census Bureau data, between April 2020 and July 2022, New York’s estimated population slumped from 8.80 million to 8.34 million, a drop of roughly 468,000 residents — nearly 5.3% of the city’s total population. Much of this loss was recorded between 2020 and 2021.
San Francisco lost 7.5% of its residents between 2020 and 2022, accounting for a greater loss of total population than New York.
So where did all those residents land? Census data indicates many went south. Georgetown, Texas saw a huge spike in population: more than 14.4% in 2022 alone. In fact, four out of the top five cities with populations of 50,000 or more that saw the biggest population increases were in Texas.
NEW YORK (AP) — A New York judge on Tuesday dismissed lawsuits filed by Airbnb and three hosts over New York City’s rules for short-term rentals, saying the restrictions are “entirely rational.”
In a 14-page ruling, Supreme Court Judge Arlene P. Bluth said having to comply with a registration system does not present an “overly onerous obligation” to the company and hosts. Such a system, she said, will help identify many illegal short-term rentals before they’re listed on the Airbnb platform.
“To be sure, these rules will likely not be perfect,” she added. “But it addresses a problem raised by OSE (New York City Mayor’s Office of Special Enforcement) and avoids a key obstacle — enforcing the ban on illegal short-term rentals.”
A city official cited thousands of illegal short-term rentals when defending the new rules in court, noting 43,000 on just Airbnb in 2018. The city received nearly 12,000 complaints regarding illegal short-term rentals from 2017 to 2021.
New York’s 2022 ordinance requires owners to register with the mayor’s office, disclose who else lives in the property, and promise to comply with zoning, construction and maintenance ordinances.
San Francisco-based Airbnb has called the restrictions “extreme and oppressive” and a de facto ban against short-term rentals that left the company no choice but to sue.
“Taken together, these features of the registration scheme appear intended to drive the short-term rental trade out of New York City once and for all,” Airbnb said in June. The company said the mayor’s Office of Special Enforcement “failed to consider reasonable alternatives.”
Asked to respond to the court’s decision, Theo Yedinsky, global policy director for Airbnb, on Tuesday evening said the city’s rules are “a blow to its tourism economy and the thousands of New Yorkers and small businesses in the outer boroughs who rely on home sharing and tourism dollars to help make ends meet.”
Manhattan rents soared to another record high in July but leasing activity dipped — leaving a glimmer of hope the red-hot market is approaching its peak. Renters forked over an average of $5,588 last month to live in the borough — a 9.3% increase from last July — and prices jumped more than 15% in Brooklyn and parts of Queens, according to the latest rental market report from appraisers Miller Samuel and brokerage giant Douglas Elliman. Manhattan’s median rent, at $4,400 per month, also set a new record for the fourth time in five consecutive months, the report showed. The July figure marked a 2.2% month-over-month increase from June’s median rent of $4,300, the only month in the past five that saw a decrease from the 30 days prior. The skyrocketing prices are 30% higher than what landlords charged in 2019 — despite the pandemic-induced exodus dropping Manhattan’s population by 400,000 between June 2020 and June 2022, according to U.S. Census data. The dearth of apartments for sale because of high interest rates have forced many would-be buyers to rent, brokers said. Workers also have returned to live in Manhattan as more and more companies mandate they be at their desks at least part of the week. Meanwhile, the number of new leases signed last month declined by 6% compared to 2022.
Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller told The Post that prices may be capping out. “What’s a little different this month is that leasing activity fell, and typically July and August are peak leasing season,” Miller said. “What this suggests is that consumers are beginning to hit the threshold of what they can afford, which may suggest that rents are approaching their peak for the time being.” Miller noted that unlike in the sale of goods and services, where prices surge when there’s a greater demand, in housing “as landlords push to get higher rents, we’re seeing a drop in the people that are actually renting.” Still, the increase in rents in July was across the board — from studio apartments to three-bedroom cribs. In Manhattan, the average rental price for a studio in July was $3,236. One-, two- and three-bedroom apartments went for $4,366, $6,226 and $10,744, respectively. To live in a luxury building in Manhattan, be prepared to dish out an average of $15,260 monthly, the report showed — a nearly 13% surge from last year. There were few deals to be found across the East River. Brooklyn’s median rent rose 16.2%, to $3,950, compared to last year — the highest in history. The borough saw 11.2% less inventory and a 52.1% dip in new lease signings, according to the report. The average rental in Brooklyn was $4,347 in July, another record high. Rents in popular Queens neighborhoods like Astoria and Long Island City spiked 17% year-over-year, to an average of $4,003, according to the report.. The median rental price in northwest Queens was $3,641. New leases were down 13.5% in the area, though the average rental spent only one day on the market before getting snatched up.
The report does not include data on the Bronx or Staten Island. Miller expects the record prices to be broken again next month, “the busiest leasing season of the year.” “July is second, so it’s certainly possible to see another record net month, but I suspect we’re getting near the top,” Miller said. However, that doesn’t mean prices will be falling come September. “Many people (think) the opposite of rising rents are falling rents, but we just had the Federal Reserve say they didn’t think there was a recession in front of us, so I contend that the opposite of rising rents is stable rent,” Miller said. “It seems unreasonable to expect rents to fall significantly in the near term” unless there was some “significant economic event with substantial job loss,” he added. US data released Thursday showed the price of everyday goods and services rose moderately in July, showing signs of progress in the central bank’s tightening cycle to snuff tamp down inflation. However, rising housing costs were by far the largest contributor to July’s uptick in prices, accounting for 90% of the advance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. Indexes which increased in June include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, education, and recreation. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, medical care, and communication were among those that decreased over the month.
The all items index increased 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending July, slightly more than the 3.0-percent increase for the 12 months ending in June. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.7 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 12.5 percent for the 12 months ending July, and the food index increased 4.9 percent over the last year.
Cannabis sales figures released on Monday show that the dispensary run by the nonprofit Housing Works exceeded its revenue expectations for the first six months. But it’s unclear whether other early licensees who have struggled with New York state’s slow rollout of the retail industry will be able to replicate this success.
The state’s cannabis program has prioritized granting licenses to nonprofits like Housing Works as well as people whose lives were affected by prohibition. In late December, when Housing Works opened New York’s first legal recreational marijuana dispensary in the East Village, a line stretched around the block, and it sparked a flurry of local news coverage. But the initial hype was not a guarantee of sustained sales — especially given how many unlicensed dispensaries were selling untaxed weed nearby.
The Housing Works shop sold $12 million worth of edibles, flower and other marijuana products in its first six months, averaging $2 million a month. That’s twice the monthly revenue the nonprofit was projecting when it launched, according to Matthew Bernardo, president of Housing Works, which provides health care, housing and social services.
“We were very pleased and it was really successful from day one,” Bernardo said. The dispensary did about $40,000 in sales within three hours of opening on Dec. 29, the nonprofit said.
Because state officials have been slow to open other dispensaries, Housing Works accounts for more than a third of the $33.4 million the state’s legal recreational marijuana industry generated in its first six months. But more than 400 retail licenses have now been distributed, and other shops are coming online one by one. As of Friday, seven legal dispensaries operated across the five boroughs, and 17 had opened statewide, not counting a handful of delivery-only operations.
The state’s legal recreational cannabis industry generated $33.4 million from sales in its first six months. Housing Works brought in more than a third of that revenue.
For Bernard Allulli, who has a license to open a dispensary in Manhattan, the initial sales figures from Housing Works are encouraging. “It helps with investors, obviously, for those numbers to be released, because people know that this is a real thing,” Allulli said.
Still, he said he felt Housing Works had certain advantages.
“I’m not going to be on Broadway and Eighth Street right on top of NYU, and I’m not the first shop that opens up that has all of that press behind them,” Allulli said.
At Housing Works, deliveries currently account for about 5% to 7% of sales, and Bernardo said the goal is to expand that segment of the business. “We are trying to get the word out,” he said.
So far, Housing Works delivers to parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn as well as Long Island City in Queens.
Part of the appeal of legalizing marijuana was to generate more tax revenue for the state. Housing Works created about $1.8 million in sales tax in its first six months. New York’s recreational cannabis retailers generated an estimated $4.3 million in sales tax revenue during that time, based on overall sales figures from the state’s Cannabis Control Board.
Tax revenue from the recreational cannabis program is supposed to go towards education, grants to community organizations and drug treatment programs.
Meanwhile, Housing Works is using its cannabis revenue to bolster its social programs, including housing and job training for people re-entering the community after being incarcerated, Bernardo said.
He added that the company is planning to launch a cannabis job training program where people can shadow employees at the Housing Works dispensary, so they can either work there or elsewhere in the legal weed industry.
