The Rate of Inflation Lowered in June

From NYTimes.com

By Jeanna Smialek

July 12, 2023

Inflation cooled significantly in June, offering some of the most hopeful news since the Federal Reserve began trying to tame rapid price increases 16 months ago — and boosting the chances that the central bank might be able to stop raising interest rates after its meeting this month.

The Consumer Price Index climbed 3 percent in the year through June, according to data released Wednesday, less than the 4 percent increase in the year through May and just a third of its roughly 9 percent peak last summer.

That overall measure is being pulled down by big declines in gas prices that could prove ephemeral, which is why policymakers closely watch a more slimmed-down version: the change in prices after stripping out food and fuel costs. That metric, known as the core index, offered news that was even better than what economists had expected.

The core index climbed 4.8 percent compared with the previous year, down from 5.3 percent in the year through May. Economists had forecast a 5 percent increase. And on a monthly basis, it climbed at the slowest pace since August 2021.

Slower inflation is unquestionably good news, because it allows consumer paychecks to stretch further at the gas pump and in the grocery aisle. And if inflation can come down sustainably without a big increase in unemployment or a painful economic recession, it could allow workers to hang on to the major gains they have made over the past three years: progress toward better jobs and pay that has helped to chip away at income inequality.

The White House, which has spent over a year on the defensive over rising prices, celebrated the fresh report, with President Biden calling the current economic moment “Bidenomics in action.” And stocks soared as investors bet that the Fed would be able to be less aggressive in its fight against inflation — even halting its interest rate increases after a final July move — in light of the new data.

“This is very promising news,” said Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist and founding partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives. “The pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together. But it’s just one report, and the Fed has been burned by inflation before.”

Fed officials are likely to avoid declaring victory just yet. Policymakers are still trying to assess whether the moderation is likely to be quick and complete. They do not want to allow price increases to linger at slightly elevated levels for too long, because if they do, consumers and businesses could adjust their behavior in ways that make more rapid inflation a permanent feature of the economy.

That’s why officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are likely to raise interest rates at their meeting on July 25 and 26. Policymakers had also indicated that one or more additional rate moves could be warranted after that.

New Development Planned in Chelsea at 335 8th Avenue

Manhattan Real Estate tracker has learned that the building that currently houses Gristides Supermarket and other stores will be torn down for a new residential development that will be anchored with a large 27,000 square foot Lidl Supermarket. The property will be developed by MAG Partners.

From MAG Partners:

MAG Partners was selected by Penn South, the affordable housing cooperative in Chelsea, to develop 335 Eighth Avenue into a mixed income apartment building with ground floor commercial space, including a grocery store.  The new 190-unit building will be developed under the Affordable NY Program with thirty percent of its units reserved for low- and middle-income New Yorkers.

The redevelopment will replace the aging existing building with a modern, contextual seven-story building that is about 200,000 square feet, designed by renowned local architects COOKFOX.  At the heart of Penn South, the design seeks to bridge the historical character of Chelsea, 21st century visions of urban living and contemporary aspirations for a new building that supports sustainable and healthy living.

New York City Rent Guidelines Board Issues Rent Increases

NEW YORK CITY RENT GUIDELINES BOARD

2022 Apartment & Loft Order #54

June 21, 2022

Order Number 54 – Apartments and Lofts, rent levels for leases commencing October 1, 2022 through September 30, 2023.

NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN PURSUANT TO THE AUTHORITY VESTED IN THE NEW YORK CITY RENT GUIDELINES BOARD BY THE RENT STABILIZATION LAW OF 1969, as amended, and the Emergency Tenant Protection Act of 1974, as amended and implemented by Resolution No. 276 of 1974 of the New York City Council, and in accordance with the requirements of Section 1043 of the New York City Charter, that the Rent Guidelines Board (RGB) hereby adopts the following levels of fair rent increases over lawful rents charged and paid on September 30, 2022. These rent adjustments will apply to rent stabilized apartments with leases commencing on or after October 1, 2022 and through September 30, 2023. Rent guidelines for loft units subject to Section 286 subdivision 7 of the Multiple Dwelling Law are also included in this order.

ADJUSTMENT FOR LEASES (APARTMENTS)

Together with such further adjustments as may be authorized by law, the annual adjustment for leases for apartments shall  be:

  • For a one-year lease commencing on or after October 1, 2022 and on or before September 30, 2023:        3.25%
  • For a two-year lease commencing on or after October 1, 2022 and on or before September 30, 2023:        5%

Smoke from Canadian Forest Fires Engulfs New York City

From NY Post:

Air quality in NYC worst since 1980s — worse than after 9/11: forecaster New York City’s air quality was the worst since at least the 1980s Wednesday afternoon, as thick wildfire smoke blowing down from Canada dimmed the city into an orange haze. “It looks like Mars out there,” said Fox Forecast Center meteorologist Brian Mastro just before 2 p.m. The city’s air quality index had risen to 353 out of 500 by early afternoon, which is considered “very hazardous” and was the worst recorded since at least the ’80s, he explained. Around 2:30 p.m., the air quality ranking site IQair.com ranked the city’s air quality index as 80% worse than the second-most polluted major world city, Delhi, India. On a normal day in New York, the air index is about 100. The air quality index was even worse than after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, but fortunately, the air from more than 100 out-of-control wildfires hundreds of miles to the north was not as toxic as the debris cloud from the terror attack, said Mastro. “That was not as widespread, because it came from Lower Manhattan and the wind was blowing it to the south, over Brooklyn, so there wasn’t really anything over the northern parts of Manhattan or anything. Whereas, this is the whole city,” Mastro explained. Everything you need to know about the NYC wildfire smoke New York City’s air has been heavily polluted by thick smoke from Canadian wildfires burning hundreds of miles away. 

NYC Mayor Eric Adams warned residents to stay inside to avoid exposure. New York’s air quality has become some of the worst in the world as the ominous orange smog from wildfires near Quebec, British Columbia and Nova Scotia continue to settle over the region, according to IQair. ​​The air quality is expected to remain hazardous through the weekend. “The good news is this is basically the worst it’s going to get between now and the next couple of hours,” Mastro said. “As we get later into tonight, it’s going to start to calm down a little bit, but we still could have a little bit of smoke hanging around tomorrow and Friday, but nowhere near what we have today,” Mastro said. The forecaster echoed doctors and Mayor Eric Adams, who advised even healthy New Yorkers to stay inside until the smoke dissipated. When asked if he had any other comment, Mastro responded: “It’s wild, it’s orange outside, I’ve never seen anything like it.”

NOAA satellite image, June 7, 2023

Unlicensed Smoke Shop Evicted in Hell’s Kitchen

From W42ST.NYC:

There were signs of change at 606 9th Avenue (between W43rd/W44th Street) this week, where a smoke shop vanished this week after a court case between landlords and Citi Deli Corp — more recently known as Milky Way Exotics — was decided in favor of the landlords this January. The building’s owners filed suit against the tenants for defaulting on their lease terms in December 2022, alleging that Citi Deli Corp “had impermissibly altered the use of the premises by ‘including the sale of smoking supplies,’ thereby ‘changing the nature of the retail sales’ from a grocery/convenience store into a ‘smoke shop.’” 

The owners of Citi Deli Corp argued that while they were selling unlicensed smoking-related products, they had continued ‘to stock and sell grocery store items and lightly prepared foodstuffs’… in compliance with the lease.” Photos of the store renamed as Milky Way Exotics convinced officials otherwise, and the “deli” was ordered to vacate. According to local sources, the sheriff’s office raided the establishment on April 10, although the shop reopened April 11 and remained in business until this week. W42ST has reached out to the plaintiffs for further comment on the case and will update if we hear back.

Before eviction (photo from W42ST.NYC)
After eviction (photo from W42ST.NYC)

LIDL Supermarket to Open a 23,000 sq. ft. Store in Chelsea

The brand-new ground-floor LIDL grocery store plans to work with Hire NYC to hire locals when it opens in the early months of 2026. Numerous employment opportunities will be generated by the store for the neighborhood. Lidl, which has its headquarters in Arlington, Virginia, has now signed a second lease in Manhattan. The community responded favorably to its February 2022 debut in Harlem. The store will provide value, a straightforward and effective shopping experience, as well as sections for meats, seafood, fresh produce, flowers, and other daily grocery essentials. On the east coast, Lidl runs more than 170 stores, including 25 in New York State. At the moment, Lidl has locations in Astoria, Queens, Staten Island, and Harlem in New York City.

 “MAG Partners and Lidl U.S. announced a lease for an approximately 23,000-square-foot grocery store at 335 Eighth Avenue, a mixed-income apartment building being developed within the Penn South campus, an affordable housing cooperative located in the Chelsea community of Manhattan, N.Y.

30% of the 188 apartments in the residential building are designated for low- and middle-income New Yorkers as part of the Affordable NY Program. Construction is anticipated to start in the third quarter of 2023, with on-site demolition set to start in May.

From Supermarketnews.com (Lidl Will Open Second Grocery Store in Manhattan, 2023)

Parking Garage Collapses in Downtown Manhattan

From Foxnews.com:

The New York City street where a parking garage collapsed, killing one person and forcing five others to be rescued from the building, remained closed a day later on Wednesday because investigators have not yet revealed the suspected cause of the building’s sudden collapse by Lower Manhattan’s Financial District, which reportedly had four active violations.

He stated that the building had an ongoing violation since 2003. The buildings commissioner claimed that a request had been made in 2010, but she made no mention of whether the infraction had been fixed. Vilenchik continued, promising further information later on, “There are some active permits on the building, one related to electrical work on the premises.”

In order to determine a potential cause for the collapse, “our engineers deployed and are currently inspecting neighboring buildings and reviewing footage from drone pictures,” the man stated. “We are going to continuously review and research property profiles to understand the history of the building, certificate of occupancy, and all other records, and I will update this information.”

Parking garage at 57 Ann Street collapses (NBC New York)

According to the records of the NYC Department of Buildings, the parking garage at 57 Ann Street had 19 violations that were resolved or defaulted on, and another four that were still active and required a certificate of correction. According to WABC, the identical parking structure owned by the Great Neck, New York-based 57 Ann Street Realty Association has 64 infractions with the Department of Buildings dating back to 1976. On Wednesday, Fox News Digital contacted the buildings division to get more information.

Six employees were in the building when the garage collapsed at 4 p.m., a few streets from City Hall and the Brooklyn Bridge and around half a mile from the New York Stock Exchange, according to FDNY Chief of Operations John Esposito. Four of them were taken to the hospital and were in good health. One individual passed away, and another declined medical help. He described how a few of the concrete slab floors gave way, crushing some of the automobiles inside and delaying operations. The FDNY proceeded to search the cars even after they thought everyone had been located.

From Foxnews.com

Highest Bidder Appears to Have Backed Out of Sale of the Flatiron Building

At least for a few days, it appeared that the Flatiron Building had sold on Wednesday. With an offer of $190 million, Jacob Garlick, the auction’s highest bidder, won. Jeffrey Gural was taken aback by this as his family company was thought to be the most likely buyer for the remaining 25% of the building, which is currently owned by a four-owner consortium. The long-running impasse between Gural’s group and the final fifth proprietor, Nathan Silverstein, was resolved with the court-ordered sale.

According to auctioneer Matthew Mannion, there were 11 registered bidders when the auction started, but only “four or five actually placed any bids.” Once the bids reached about $160 million, Gural, a well-known New York real estate professional, and Garlick, a Virginia investor who owns a few buildings nearby but is largely unknown in the public, engaged in a two-person bid-’em-up race. When Garlick won, he cried out in joy and told NY1 that experiencing it had been a “lifelong dream of mine since I’m 14 years old. I’ve worked every day of my lift to be in this position. He then left without saying anything further in public or, it appears, to any of the other parties involved. “We are honored to be a steward of this historic building, and it will be our life’s mission to preserve its integrity forever,” he said before leaving. He failed to deliver the required 10% down payment on Friday, according to The Real Deal. He appears to have received an extension of one or two days after that, but he also missed that date. The building’s conflicting parties’ mediator, attorney Peter Axelrod, told the Times, “I suspect he didn’t have the money, or that he realized he overbid and decided not to proceed.”

According to Mannion, the auction was unique. For a property this scale, prospective buyers typically need to put up a few million dollars up front to prove their legitimacy. This time, buyers had to register ahead of time but weren’t needed to make a payment. It’s unclear whether, per the terms of sale, Garlick will be liable for a portion of his bid anyhow, to cover the costs of the auction and lawyering and generally causing a headache. Mannion says, sounding a little surprised, “I’ve done thousands of auctions and you can count the amount that didn’t require a down payment up front on one hand.”

Since he withdrew, Gural, the underbidder, is being given the property for $189.5 million. Given that his offer was increased by about $30 million in the dying seconds, he is almost certain to decline. It appears likely that the building will be put back up for auction and that, when it does, he will get a second, somewhat less costly bite of the apple.

Why enter an offer in an auction if you lack the funds? Garlick may have been covertly working for his soon-to-be-former partner Silverstein, who stands to gain from a higher final price, Gural hypothesized to the Times. That is known as shill bidding, and it is prohibited.) Alternatively, it’s possible that Garlick was simply swept up in the excitement of the situation. According to study on the subject, the possibility of losing to a rival can trigger a type of fight-or-flight response depending on a number of physical factors, such as blood oxygen levels. In essence, people simply keep moving forward against all logic when they become engrossed in the present. When it’s time to write the check, the smoke clears, and they stealthily return to their corners or their workplaces in Virginia.

From Curbed.

Roark Capital in Talks to Buy Subway

Subway may be for sale.

From Bloomberg.com:

One of the prospective buyers vying for a sandwich company is Roark Capital Group. People with knowledge of the situation say Subway. According to the individuals, who requested anonymity because the situation is private, other private equity firms are also thinking about making a bid for the Milford, Connecticut-based business.

One of the individuals claimed that Subway is aiming for a valuation of more than $10 billion. According to another source, some potential buyers may place a $8 billion valuation on the company. No definitive choice has been made, and Roark may decide not to pursue a deal for Subway, the sources continued. A Roark Capital representative declined to respond. Requests for feedback from a Subway spokesperson were not answered. One of the biggest restaurant chains in the world, Subway, which has about 37,000 franchised locations across more than 100 nations, announced in February that it was considering a sale and was collaborating with JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The Atlanta-based Roark Capital, which is run by President Paul Ginsberg and Managing Partner Neal Aronson, has supported a number of food chains, including the parent companies of Arby’s, Dunkin’ Donuts, Carvel, and Carl’s Jr.