Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) Releases Report Measuring Visitation Rates in Office Buildings in Manhattan

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This report was recently released by REBNY:

To date, much of the discussion of NYC’s office visit and/or the rate of return to office has focused on estimating a single market average. Such headline rates have been helpful to gauge the direction of the overall market, and in fact show gains in workers being in the office from 2020 levels. However, a single rate does not capture significant differences between buildings. To get a fuller perspective, REBNY performed a preliminary analysis of Placer.ai location data. Results indicate that this location data provides a more nuanced and comprehensive picture of Manhattan’s office building visitation rates.

Preliminary analysis of Placer.ai data in 2022 indicates*:

  • Average building visitation rates in 2022 surpassed 60% of pre-pandemic baselines
  • Visitation rates in nearly two-thirds of buildings exceeded 50% of pre-pandemic baselines
  • Class A properties displayed stronger growth (66.3% average visitation rate) in comparison to Class B properties (53.6% average visitation rate)

*All totals are based on Placer.ai location intelligence data for 250 office buildings from January to mid-December in 2021 and 2022, compared to the same period in 2019.

More information on this study was reported by the NY Post.

Latest Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in January on a
seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for food, gasoline, and natural gas also contributing. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent. The energy index increased 2.0 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes rose over the month. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January. Categories which increased in January include the shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, apparel, and household furnishings and operations indexes. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, and airline fares were among those that decreased over the month. The all-items index increased 6.4 percent for the 12 months ending January; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending October 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.6 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month increase since December 2021. The energy index increased 8.7 percent for the 12 months ending January, and the food index increased 10.1 percent over the last year.

Latest Information on CPI and Employment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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From the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Payroll employment increased by 517,000 in January 2023.

In December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 6.5 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in December (SA); up 5.7 percent over the year (NSA).

Consumer prices for all items rose 6.5 percent from December 2021 to December 2022. Food prices increased 10.4 percent, reflecting an 11.8-percent increase in prices for food at home and an 8.3-percent increase in prices for food away from home.

U.S. Added 261,000 Jobs in October 2022

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The employment figures released by the Labor Department indicated that 261,000 jobs were added to the economy in October 2022. The unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in September to the current 3.7%. As reported in the New York Times, the Federal Reserve is concerned that a “hot” job market is forcing employers to increase wages which is leading to higher prices resulting in more inflation. The Central Bank increased interest rates by 3/4% last week and is expected to continue to raise rates. The next rate decision by the Central Bank will be on December 14th.

Inflation Data Still High Through August 2022

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Inflation data released by the Fed today indicates that the consumer price index or CPI continued very high at 8.2 percent in the year through September. When you remove the price increases for food and fuel, prices increased 6.6 percent. The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to try to control and bring down inflation. Inflation levels are running at 40 year highs and has been responsible to the large downturn in the stock and bond markets.

The monthly inflation data indicated that overall inflation rose 0.4 percent in September which was 0.3 percent higher than in August 2022. Inflation began to rise in January 2021 and has continued now at 40 year highs. Central bankers are expected to continue to raise interest rates which will essentially slow the economy but may also create a recession. Interest rates have been raised five times this year so far.

The new high inflation rate will likely confirm a three-quarter point increase to interest rates in November and even in December 2022.