Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.
The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
By Lois Weiss, NY Post, Published Oct. 27, 2023, 8:57 a.m. ET
Storefronts from Soho to the Upper East Side dazzle as tenants race to gobble up space around Gotham.iStockphoto/AFP/Getty Images
Not only has the retail apocalypse caused by the pandemic passed, Manhattan has rebounded so fast that prime locations are becoming hard to find.
“Retail is on fire,” said Eric Le Goff of Retail by Mona. “From Meatpacking to Williamsburg, all these areas are on fire.”
In recent years, rents on upper Madison Avenue between 59th Street and 86th Street had fallen into the $600s per foot. Now, a bevy of 75 transactions have pushed rents back toward $1,000 per foot.
The most recent lease was with Dolce & Gabbana which snagged a 23,338-square-foot former Hermès women’s store at 693 Madison Ave. after the other retailer moved down the block to the larger 706 Madison Ave. last year.
Additionally, Sotheby’s will take over the former Whitney Museum in the Breuer building at 945 Madison, adding new life to that stretch.
“There is a reduced amount of inventory,” said Matthew Krell of Alvarez & Marsal Property Advisor
Both Madison and Fifth avenues are going through many store changes
Dolce & Gabbana will move to the former Hermès space on Madison.
The opening of Tiffany & Co.’s redevelopment will allow its sister LVMH brand, Louis Vuitton, to move into the former Nike space to its east that Tiffany had occupied during its renovation.
Louis Vuitton will develop a new tower at 1 E. 57th St. and engulf 743 Fifth Ave., now occupied by brand cousin Hublot, sending it into the market to seek a new spot.
Gucci has renewed its large store on the Fifth Avenue base of Trump Tower. Swarovski is opening soon at 680 Fifth. Rolex is building its own tower at 665 Fifth Ave., while Marc Jacobs will take over the former Armani X on the north corner of East 51 Street at 645 Fifth Ave.
The Gucci store at the base of Trump Tower on Fifth.
The area closer to 42nd Street is lagging, however, due to numerous big-box storefronts.
One problem for the entire retail market is that it takes so long to get deals done.
“You may have an agreed-upon term sheet, but you are not getting someone swinging hammers for a year,” said Matthew Chmielecki of CBRE. “The least scientific way to measure a market is to count empty storefronts.”
Fun new spaces like Electric Shuffle are opening.
For instance, a new 10,000-square-foot deal in the base of the Virgin Hotel will bring Electric Shuffleboard to the city next spring.
John Few, of SRS Real Estate Partners, represented the concept.
“It has a very well-thought-out food and beverage program and will be good for dates and corporate events,” said Adam Weinblatt of Newmark who, along with Richard Tang of the Lam Group, represented the hotel, which has already scored a winner with Swingers minigolf.
In Noho, the 32,400-square-foot former Showfields space on Lafayette Street is up for grabs with Retail by Mona. Its asking rent is $3.5 million.
Across Lafayette, hip sneaker company Kith expanded into a big footprint.
“It’s madness with tons of people,” said Brandon Singer of Retail by Mona. “It’s like an upscale Times Square as it’s slammed and they’re not just looking, but shopping.”
On Broadway and on other Soho streets, many shops are preparing for their openings next spring while Meatpacking continues to see commitments by both luxury automakers and luxury retailers.
A revived five-building retail corridor is luring top brands to Gansevoort Row.
Saint Laurent, for instance, signed a 13,000-square-foot lease at 70 Gansevoort St., part of the Aurora Capital Associates and William Gottlieb Real Estate street revival.
“It’s full of energy and that neighborhood has transformed over the last five years,” said Adam Henick of Current Real Estate. “Gansevoort Row is beautiful with busy restaurants and popular retailers.” However, Times Square is still suffering despite lots of foot traffic.
“Not only have some of the large boxes sat vacant because it’s hard to find the right user, but the challenges the city has undergone the last few years have not helped,” said Henick.
The 245,000-square-foot retail in the base of the former New York Times building is in receivership, although the huge Bowlmor on West 44th St. is open, as is Los Tacos No. 1.
“Larger tenants are looking at it,” said Chmielecki, the agent for the block. “It’s hard to overstate the excitement in the retail market.”
The construction landscape in New York is slowing, with fewer construction starts taking place in 2023 compared with recent years.
This year, developers already have completed 8.3 million square feet across the first three quarters and are on pace to finish less than 10 million square feet, considering construction starts have declined in the past two quarters.
The projected year-end total is a notable drop, compared with the nearly 16 million built in 2022, and the 11 million built in both 2021 and 202
Adrian Ponsen, CoStar’s national director of industrial analytics, said the root cause of the slowdown is “the series of interest rate increases initiated by the Federal Reserve in early 2022, which has helped curtail the record wave of new distribution center development that was underway. Throughout the summer of 2023, industrial tenant demand softened and the pullback in groundbreakings grew more extreme.”
The slowdown in construction starts is occurring as completions are rising. About 11.7 million square feet has been completed so far in 2023. This figure is forecast to rise to nearly 17 million square feet by year’s end.
The completion of these newer industrial properties has played a part in the rise in industrial availability, as supply outpaced demand, with leasing activity underwhelming over the past 12 months. The availability rate in New York stands at 8.2%, a notable increase from the 5.7% measured at the start of 2022. The relative slowdown in leasing demand, the completion of more than 18 million square feet of new industrial space since 2022, and the negative 2.8 million square feet of annual negative absorption — or change in occupancy over a given period of time — driven by home goods retailers vacating distribution centers have been the main causes behind the rise in availability.
About 19.1 million square feet of industrial space is still under construction, which is a figure not far from the high of 22.6 million square feet during last year’s third quarter. This bevy of future supply is the driving force behind the continued vacancy increase forecast over the next 12 months. However, if the rate of new construction starts were to continue moderating, vacancy levels may begin tightening again by 2025 once the bulk of new buildings now under construction have been completed.
The US state promised the first retail licenses to previously convicted marijuana sellers. In most cases, it didn’t happen.
Only about two dozen marijuana dispensaries formerly convicted by New York authorities have opened their doors since legal recreational cannabis sales were launched in the state in December last year.
Officials promised many of the first retail licences to sellers with past drug convictions, hoping to give them a chance to succeed before competitors crowded in.
However, legal challenges over the state’s permitting process have left more than 400 provisional licensees in limbo. Marijuana farmers are also staggering because there are too few stores to sell their harvest.
Amid these troubles, New York regulators are now expanding the market. They recently opened up a 60-day general application window to grow, process, distribute or sell marijuana, expecting to issue more than 1,000 new licenses.
The move should boost the number of legal dispensaries in a market now dominated by illegal sellers who simply opened retail stores without permission.
New rules also will allow companies licensed to grow and sell medical marijuana in the state to get into the recreational market.
But the prospect of competing with medical providers worries some farmers and retailers who fear being squashed by deeper-pocketed companies.
“My concern is that they have all the money to bleed us out,” said Coss Marte, who is opening a dispensary in Manhattan next week, after it was pushed back by a lawsuit against New York regulators.
“They’re vertically integrated. So, they could grow their own product at the cheapest price and basically outbid all the farmers, all our products and all our pricing,” he added.
CONBUD, Marte’s shop, was among those temporarily blocked by a judge from opening after a group sued on behalf of disabled veterans, saying they were wrongly excluded from applying for a licence. So Marte, who has a past drug arrest, was left paying rent on a store he could not open.
A judge recently ruled that CONBUD and several other shops could open. But they didn’t all get the same luck.
Balancing equity and competition
Like many other provisional licence holders, after months of delays in opening his store, Carson Grant was debating whether to reapply for a licence again in this 60-day general round. “It’s very difficult,” he said.
Reginald Fluellen, senior consultant to the Cannabis Social Equity Coalition, accused the state of a botched rollout.
“They’ve failed miserably in providing the justice-involved individuals the kind of head start in the market that they promised,” Fluellen said.
To guard against monopolies, the medical providers will be limited to three retail outlets. And in a nod to farmers, their shops will initially have to devote half their shelf space to products grown and processed by independent businesses.
Still, critics say regulators should have allowed more time for economically and socially diverse entrepreneurs to succeed before letting in larger competitors.
Office of Cannabis Management executive director Chris Alexander said the new regulations maintain New York’s commitment to social and economic equity, while making the market more competitive.
Alexander acknowledged there was some “frustration” in getting retail stores open, but added that the state has shown that a market supplied by small farmers can work.
“We’ve got some of the top-performing dispensaries in the country right here in New York,” he said.
And there’s still room to grow. Regulators have estimated New York will eventually require at least 2,000 dispensaries to meet demand.
The US Fed expects interest rates to fall only half a percentage point in 2024, lower than market expectations.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives for a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington DC, US. The US Fed has ‘dialled up its expectations’ for a soft landing of the economy despite higher interest rates for longer [File: Andrew Harnik/AP Photo [Andrew Harnik/AP Photo]
The United States Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but stiffened its hawkish stance, with another rate increase projected by the end of the year and monetary policy kept significantly tighter through 2024 than previously expected.
As they did in June, Fed policymakers at the median still see the central bank’s benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the 5.5 percent to 5.75 percent range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the current range.
But from there the Fed’s updated quarterly projections show rates falling only half a percentage point in 2024 compared with the full percentage point of cuts anticipated at the meeting in June.
With the federal funds rate falling to 5.1 percent by the end of 2024 and 3.9 percent by the end of 2025, the central bank’s main measure of inflation is projected to drop to 3.3 percent by the end of this year, to 2.5 percent next year and to 2.2 percent by the end of 2025.
The Fed expects to get inflation back to its 2 percent target in 2026, which is a later date than some officials had thought possible.
“Inflation remains elevated,” the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in a policy statement that included projections incorporating stronger economic and job growth than prior forecasts, and keeping prospects for a “soft landing” squarely in view.
Financial markets had widely expected that the Fed would leave rates unchanged. But investors have also been banking on significant Fed rate cuts next year, an expectation clouded by the projections showing 10 of 19 officials see the policy rate remaining above 5 percent through next year.
After the release of the statement and projections, bond yields moved higher in the face of a higher-for-longer monetary policy stance, with the two-year Treasury note rising to its highest level since 2007. Stocks initially weakened while the dollar erased its losses for the day against a basket of major currencies.
Economic growth
The new projections include a substantial markup of projections for economic growth: After expecting growth as weak as 0.4 percent for this year in earlier projections, the Fed now sees the economy growing 2.1 percent in 2023.
The unemployment rate is also seen remaining steady at about 3.8 percent this year and rising to just 4.1 percent by year’s end – a vote of confidence in the possibility of containing the worst breakout of inflation since the 1980s without significant job losses.
But the projections also threaten companies and households with the possibility of even tighter credit conditions and higher borrowing costs than they have already absorbed during the Fed’s aggressive two-year battle to contain inflation, embodying a philosophy of “higher for longer” into the latest projections.
In the wake of the Fed statement, economists saw central bank officials as more confident they will be able to quash inflation without causing broader economic pain.
“The message conveyed in their upward revision to growth and their downward revision to the unemployment rate in 2024 clearly indicate a Fed that has dialled up their expectation for a soft landing, despite higher for longer rates,” said Olu Sonola, head of US economics at Fitch Ratings.
The Fed’s forecasts caught some observers off-guard, especially in the new view of a slower-than-thought decline in inflation pressures. Omair Sharif of forecasting firm Inflation Insights said that given the Fed outlook it was not surprising to see a hawkish shift in the monetary policy outlook, while adding that when it comes to officials’ outlook, “it’s oddly optimistic on the labour market and equally oddly pessimistic on core inflation this year.”
The Fed statement was approved unanimously after a two-day meeting that marked new Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s debut on the central bank policymaking stage.
Medical-MJ firms — who were the first in the state authorized to peddle any cannabis — just slammed the Hochul administration for blocking them from selling to all adult consumers.Shutterstock
As New York’s legal-cannabis rollout continues to stumble, it grows ever more obvious that the decision-makers were all far more focused on scoring symbolic points than on silly things like actually making it work.
The companies already OK’d to sell medical marijuana could have led the way to broader pot sales; instead, they got shut out.
Rather than pursuing its legislated mandate to develop licensing, regulations and guidelines for the sale of legal weed products, the state’s Office of Cannabis Management focused on a social-equity agenda by prioritizing applicants who had prior drug convictions.
Medical-MJ firms — who were the first in the state authorized to peddle any cannabis — just slammed the Hochul administration for blocking them from selling to all adult consumers.
“OCM has ignored the collective wisdom of every other state with an adult-use cannabis program — most recently Maryland — to permit existing medical operators to stand up the adult-use market,” the companies wrote in an Aug. 31 letter to Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Of course, the gov’s brain trust at OCM also shut out the veterans that the law also directed them to prioritize for licenses; that’s led to a lawsuit that has all licensing on hold.
Meanwhile, OCM’s slow start in licensing anyone at all has led to just 23 licensed dispensaries open across the whole Empire State.
The latest report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the U.S. labor market added 187,000 jobs in August 2023. Despite this steady pace of hiring, the unemployment rate jumped 0.3 percentage points to 3.8%, marking its highest level since February 2022.
The headline number of 187,000 additional jobs in August represents an uptick from the downwardly-revised 105,000 and 157,000 positions added in June and July, respectively. However, August jobs growth still marks a continued cooldown from the average monthly gains of 271,000 jobs reported over the prior 12 months.
While the unemployment rate rose to an 18-month high in August, the 3.8% level remains relatively low by historical standards. The jump in unemployment also came amid an increase in job seekers, as the civilian labor force grew by 736,000 during the month.
“The whisper number, or unofficial forecast, for August payrolls was weaker than the 187K gain we got, so that is encouraging. While some might be concerned about the uptick in the unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.8%, it looks like it is mostly driven by an increase in the labor force as opposed to a jump in those unemployed,” remarked Shawn Snyder, Executive Director, Global Investment Strategist for J.P. Morgan. The BLS counts only those who are actively looking for work in its unemployment calculation, so the number of workers entering or rejoining the job market contributed to the uptick in the unemployment rate.
Although the persistent level of hiring suggests that the labor market remains resilient, the BLS also reported a more moderate pace of wage growth in August, which could indicate a reprieve in inflationary pressures. Average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.2% in August, compared with a bump of 0.4% reported in July. This caused the year-over-year (YoY) wage increase to dip to 4.3% from the level of 4.4% recorded in the previous month.
Jobs growth in the construction industry trended higher in August, with gains of 22,000 slightly higher than the average monthly additions of 17,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in social assistance saw similar results, with August’s increase of 26,000 topping the monthly average of 22,000 jobs added over the previous year. Healthcare posted strong gains, adding 71,000 positions in August. Despite monthly gains of 40,000 in leisure and hospitality, employment in the industry remains 1.7% below the pre-pandemic level of reported in February 2020.
Weakness in the labor market was concentrated in the transportation and warehousing industry, which shed 34,000 jobs in August. These declines stem primarily from the closure of a key trucking business.
Employment outlook
The addition of 187,000 jobs in August speaks to persistent strength in the labor market, even as the pace of hiring continues to cool from the accelerated levels of 271,000 over the prior 12 months.
The uptick in unemployment may not be the most welcome news for those seeking jobs or monitoring the labor market. However, the labor force participation rate – the percentage of people who are either employed or seeking a job – rose 0.2 percentage points in August after remaining flat over the prior two months. At 62.8%, labor force participation has reached its highest level since the sharp declines witnessed at the onset of the pandemic.
In addition to the previously mentioned trucking shutdown, the ongoing strikes by actors and writers in Hollywood may have dampened jobs growth in August.
According to a CNBC report, the Gulf state of Qatar signed an agreement to purchase the Plaza Hotel in New York for about $600 million through the state-owned Katara Holding.
Katara will assume full control of the hotel while Sahara India Pariwar will retain a 75 percent interest.
The purchase was made just a few days after Sahara India Pariwar chairman Subrata Roy and Sahara’s U.S. division were sued by United Capital Real Estate Development, alleging they broke a contract by looking for other purchasers for the Plaza Hotel, according to Arabian Business.
In a case submitted on June 22 to a state court in New York, United also claimed that Roy and Sahara U.S. had deceitfully persuaded United to sign contracts, produce financial documentation, and put money in escrow. In addition to interest and legal fees, United is requesting $1 billion in damages for the claims.
Additionally, according to the group’s complaint, United consented to buy Sahara’s 85% ownership of the Dream Downtown hotel in New York. On behalf of his company, Roy signed two contracts for these sales on February 19 and February 27, 2018.
This lawsuit was filed in response to a May 2018 complaint filed by Ashkenazy Acquisition and Kingdom Holding, alleging that their agreement to match an offer had been broken. They accepted a bid of $600 million for a purchase deal that was supposed to close on June 25th, matching the offer made by a company led by Shahal Khan. The president of Sahara U.S., Sandeep Wadhwa, planned to respond in court, stating that he did not agree with Ashkenazy and Kingdom Holding’s assertions. The group hasn’t yet submitted that response, though.
The Plaza Hotel has had multiple owners in the past, including the president of the United States, Donald Trump. When he declared bankruptcy more than 20 years ago, Trump sold the hotel. During its tenure, the Plaza’s majority was turned into condominiums by the Israel-based Elad Group. The property is now managed by AccorHotels under the Fairmont Hotels & Resorts brand.
According to a report from Rent Cafe, New York City has retained its title as No. 1 in apartment construction thus far in 2023. The report estimates that at least 33,000 new rental units are set to be opened this year.
Of these units expected to be completed before the end of the year, most of them are either in Brooklyn, Manhattan or Queens. Brooklyn has the most at 9,825, followed by Queens (4,430) and Manhattan (3,770). The Bronx and Staten Island were not included in the metro data set for New York City.
Rent Cafe credits the large amount of construction in New York City being an effort to cut down on housing shortage concerns. As the only northeastern location in the top 20 metros for apartment construction in 2023, there is a high demand for housing in New York City.
From 2020-2022, 66,070 new apartments were opened in New York City, according to data collected by Rent Cafe. This large production was meant as a means to bring housing to more residents new and old. This also reflects high demand even during and following the COVID-19 pandemic. The only metro area to see more units built during that span was Dallas, TX, at 76,660.
RentCafe.com is a nationwide apartment search website that enables renters to easily find apartments and houses for rent across the country.
In order to compile this report, Rent Cafe’s research team analyzed new apartment construction data across 296 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas. The study is exclusively based on apartment data related to buildings containing at least 50 units. Metros with less than 300 units or less than two properties/buildings were excluded from the study.
Yardi Matrix, a business development and asset management tool for brokers, sponsors, banks and equity sources underwriting investments in the multifamily, office, industrial and self-storage sectors, provided apartment data for Rent Cafe. Apartment projections at the metro and city level for 2023 were calculated based on a Yardi Matrix proprietary algorithm, which includes confirmed and likely completions for 2023 based on the issuance of a certificate of occupancy. Once the certificate of occupancy is issued, the status of the property can be considered “completed”.
The U.S. Census Bureau provided data on estimated population by metro area.
EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, August 30, 2023
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (refer to “Updates to GDP”). The updated estimates primarily reflected downward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to state and local government spending.
The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).
Compared to the first quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in exports, and decelerations in consumer spending and federal government spending. Imports turned down.
Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent at an annual rate, or $268.6 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $26.80 trillion, a downward revision of $36.3 billion from the previous estimate (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the previous estimate. The PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point.
Personal Income
Current-dollar personal income increased $232.1 billion in the second quarter, a downward revision of $3.9 billion from the previous estimate. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), personal income receipts on assets (both personal interest income and personal dividend income), personal current transfer receipts (led by government social benefits), and rental income of persons (table 8).
Disposable personal income increased $284.5 billion, or 5.9 percent, in the second quarter, an upward revision of $36.3 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 3.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.8 percentage point.
Personal saving was $892.3 billion in the second quarter, an upward revision of $22.7 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.8 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in the first quarter (table 1).
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $10.6 billion in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of $121.5 billion in the first quarter (table 10).
Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $47.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.4 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $17.1 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $102.9 billion in the first quarter. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $20.2 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $9.2 billion in the first quarter. In the second quarter, receipts increased $18.2 billion and payments decreased $2.0 billion.
Updates to GDP
With the second estimate, downward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment were partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, consumer spending, federal government spending, and residential investment. Imports were revised up. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the “Additional Information” section that follows.
Advance Estimate
Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP
2.4
2.1
Current-dollar GDP
4.7
4.1
Real GDI
…
0.5
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI
…
1.3
Gross domestic purchases price index
1.9
1.7
PCE price index
2.6
2.5
PCE price index excluding food and energy
3.8
3.7
First Quarter Wages and Salaries
BEA’s standard practice for first-quarter estimates of wages and salaries is to incorporate data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program as part of the annual update of the National Economic Acccounts. New QCEW data for the first quarter of 2023 will be incorporated into next month’s release along with the 2023 Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts (refer to box below for details).
Notice on Upcoming Data IncludingComprehensive Updates
BEA will release initial results from the 2023 comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts, which include the National Income and Product Accounts as well as the Industry Economic Accounts, on September 28, 2023. The update will present revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, and gross domestic income. For details, refer to Information on Updates to the National Economic Accounts.
The initial results of the comprehensive update of the Regional Economic Accounts will be released on September 29.
GDP by industry and GDP by state news releases for the second quarter of 2023 will be released this fall. BEA will send out an advisory with the exact days and times when they become available.
Personal income by state for the second quarter will be released as scheduled on September 29.
Next release, September 28, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. EDT Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate) Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate) Second Quarter 2023 and Comprehensive Update
