Latest Information on CPI and Employment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

From the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. Payroll employment increased by 517,000 in January 2023.

In December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 6.5 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in December (SA); up 5.7 percent over the year (NSA).

Consumer prices for all items rose 6.5 percent from December 2021 to December 2022. Food prices increased 10.4 percent, reflecting an 11.8-percent increase in prices for food at home and an 8.3-percent increase in prices for food away from home.

U.S. Added 261,000 Jobs in October 2022

The employment figures released by the Labor Department indicated that 261,000 jobs were added to the economy in October 2022. The unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in September to the current 3.7%. As reported in the New York Times, the Federal Reserve is concerned that a “hot” job market is forcing employers to increase wages which is leading to higher prices resulting in more inflation. The Central Bank increased interest rates by 3/4% last week and is expected to continue to raise rates. The next rate decision by the Central Bank will be on December 14th.

Inflation Data Still High Through August 2022

Inflation data released by the Fed today indicates that the consumer price index or CPI continued very high at 8.2 percent in the year through September. When you remove the price increases for food and fuel, prices increased 6.6 percent. The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to try to control and bring down inflation. Inflation levels are running at 40 year highs and has been responsible to the large downturn in the stock and bond markets.

The monthly inflation data indicated that overall inflation rose 0.4 percent in September which was 0.3 percent higher than in August 2022. Inflation began to rise in January 2021 and has continued now at 40 year highs. Central bankers are expected to continue to raise interest rates which will essentially slow the economy but may also create a recession. Interest rates have been raised five times this year so far.

The new high inflation rate will likely confirm a three-quarter point increase to interest rates in November and even in December 2022.